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淨現值法.
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定義
此方法的理論是將投資的未來現金流量,全部折現成投資始日的價值,稱為該投資的淨現金流量,或稱為淨現值(NPV, Net Present Value)。
假設投資的淨現值為正數,代表該投資的結果可以增加企業的價值;反之,如果投資評估的淨現值為負數,代表此投資會減少企業的價值,不應該接受。
淨現值(NPV)通過計算每個投資期間的成本(負現金流)和收益(正現金流)來確定。期限通常為一年,但可以按季度,半年或數月來衡量。在計算每個時期的現金流量後,每個時期的現值(PV)是通過以定期收益率(市場規定的收益率)貼現其未來價值(見公式)來實現的。
當然淨現值為正數仍不代表該接受此投資建議,或許存在其他淨現值更高的投資機會。在多項投資案並陳時,應選擇淨現值最高的投資案。淨現值是多數企業進行投資評估時的依據,因為它將投資期間的所有現金流量納入考慮,並且以折現後的金額做計算。
优缺点
優點:
- 考慮貨幣時間價值
- 基於現金流量做決策
- 符合價值可加原則(Value Additivity Principle)
- 适应性强,能基本满足项目年限相同的互斥投资方案的决策
- 能灵活地考虑投资风险
缺點:
- 所采用的贴现率不易确定
- 不适宜于原始投资额现值不同的独立投资方案的比较决策
- NPV有时也不能对寿命期不同的互斥投资方案进行直接决策
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