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五窮六絕七翻身

五窮六絕七翻身 “May is poor, June is bleak, and July will turn around”是香港股市在1980年代至今的一個都市傳說,是當時的經濟分析員在參考過歷年香港股市的升跌而得出的結論。結論指:股市在每逢5月時都會開始跌市,到了6月更會大跌,但到了7月,股市卻會起死回生。[1]出現此現象是因為香港大多數公司在3月公佈年結業績,之後派息除淨。所以到了5月時,由於大多數公司都已經派息除淨,股價自然會下跌,直到暑假後股友期待中期業績為止。美國股市同類理論叫sell in May and go away

根據1992年至2011年的恒生指數走勢,20個5月升市跌市各佔一半,6月也是差不多情況,即使5月和6月是跌市,7月也不一定是升市,「五窮六絕七翻身」之說法被認為不準確。[2]

預防措施

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由於此「預言」在發表之後數年都繼續出現,使當時不少小股友都對這個傳說深信不疑。到了1990年代中後期,開始有人以各種方式來「預防」此現象。「預防措施」包括在踏入3月之前,賣出手上高價股票,並於6月之時大手購入各種低價優質股票,結果使此種升跌周期不斷提早出現。

其他適用範圍

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五窮六絕七翻身亦被使用作形容香港電影票房,因為當時學生佔票房收入中很大比例;由於五月正值舉行香港最大型公開考試——香港中學會考,而六月更是各中小學年終考試的日子,所以電影票房亦隨之下跌。而七月初考試完畢,七月中期暑假開始,學生開始外出活動,電影票房收入亦隨之增加。

參考文獻

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  1. ^ 五窮六絕七翻身. 頭條網. [2016-05-24]. (原始内容存档于2016-06-25). 
  2. ^ 投資樂園——五窮六絕七翻身. 頭條日報. 2012-04-30 [2016-05-24]. (原始内容存档于2019-04-15). 
  3. ^ 馬鼎盛,《講東講西》,2019-01-14
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五窮六絕七翻身
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