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道氏理论.
道氏理论(Dow Theory)是一个关于美国股票市场创造财富方式的活动方式理论。
来源
理论起初来源于新闻记者、首位华尔街日报(Wall Street Journal)的记者和道琼斯公司(Dow Jones and Company)的共同创立者查尔斯·亨利·道(Charles Henry Dow,1851年—1902年)的社论。在其去世后,由威廉·彼得·汉密尔顿(William Peter Hamilton)、罗伯特·雷亚(Robert Rhea)和E·乔治·希弗(E.George Schaefer)总结出来并予以命名。道氏他本身从未使用过“道氏理论”这个词。
理论
道氏理论断言,股票会随市场的趋势同向变化以反映市场趋势和状况。
股票的变化表现为三种趋势:主要趋势、次级反应、日线。
- 主要趋势:持续一年或以上,大部分股票将随大市上升或下跌,大致分为牛市、熊市、区间盘整。
- 次级趋势:与主要趋势完全相反的方向,持续期超过三星期,幅度通常为上次主要趋势低点到高点的三分之一至三分之二。
- 日线:每日的价格范围,无法分析,但分析主要趋势与次级反应,需要靠每个日线的共同组合。
参考文献
- J. M. Hurst: The Profit Magic of Stock Transaction Timing. Englewood Cliffs, N.J.: Prentice-Hall, 1977. (Analysis of the empirical character of US stock market movements prior to 1973)
- John Murphy: Technical Analysis of Futures Markets. New York, N.Y.: New York Inst. of Finance, 1986.
- 香港投资者学会“道氏理论”名词解释(繁体中文)
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| 技术 | 图表形态 | |
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| K线图形态 | 基础 |
- 十字线
- 锤子线
- 上吊线
- 倒锤线
- 光头光脚
- 流星
- 纺锤线 (技术分析)
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| 进阶 | |
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| 技术指标 | 支撑和阻挡 | |
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| 市场趋势 |
- 平均趋向指数 (A.D.X.)
- 顺势指标 (CCI)
- 非趋势价格指标 (DPO)
- 应用确定指标 (KST)
- 一目均衡表
- 指数平滑移动平均线 (MACD)
- 质量指数
- 移动平均 (MA)
- 抛物线指标 (SAR)
- 聪明钱指数 (SMI)
- 趋势线
- 三重指数平滑移动平均线
- Vortex指标 (VI)
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| 动量 | |
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| 交易量 |
- 累积/派发线
- 简易波动指标 (EMV)
- 强力指数 (FI)
- 负交易量指数 (NVI)
- 能量潮 (OBV)
- 卖权-买权比率 (PCR)
- 量价曲线 (VPT)
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| 波动性 | |
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| 市场广度 |
- 涨跌指数 (ADL)
- 阿姆氏指标 (TRIN)
- 麦克连指标
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| 其它 | |
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