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선거인단 예측

[편집]

선거 분석가들과 정치 평론가들은 선거인단 구성에 대해 확률적 예측을 발표한다. 이러한 예측은 다양한 요인들을 사용하여 각 후보가 해당 주의 선거인단에서 승리할 가능성을 추정한다. 대부분의 선거 예측자들은 다음 등급을 예측에 사용한다:

  • "tossup" (반반의 가망성): 이점 없음.
  • "tilt" (약간 기울어짐): "lean"보다는 강하지 않은 이점
  • "lean" 혹은 "leans" (기울어짐): 약간의 이점
  • "likely" (상당히 기울어짐): 상당하지만, 뒤집어질 수 있는 이점
  • "safe" 혹은 "solid" (안전 혹은 견고함): 거의 확실한 승리를 할 수 있는 이점

아래 표에 포함된 주들은 예측 중 하나에서 경쟁력이 있다고 보는 주이다. 더 쿡 리포터(The Cook Political Report), 사바토의 크리스탈 공(Sabato's Crystal Ball), 선거 안으로(Inside Elections), C분석(CNalysis), 디시전 데스크 HQ(Decision Desk HQ), 리얼클리어폴리틱스(RealClearPolitics)의 예측 결과 모두가 "Safe"(안전) 혹은 "solid"(견고함)이라고 예상하는 주들은 간단함을 위해 제외되었다.

이러한 예측의 대부분은 조 바이든이 2024년 7월 21일 대통령 후보로 사퇴하기 이전에 이루어졌다. 파이브서티에잇(FiveThirtyEight), 디시전 데스크 HQ(Decision Desk HQ), 이코노미스트(The Economist)는 바이든이 대통령 후보에서 물러난 이후 예측을 중단했고, 선거 안으로(Inside Elections)의 예측은 바이든이 물러나기 전에 실시되었다. 표의 이들의 평가는 바이든이 대통령 후보로서 남아 있다면 각 주들에서 어떤 결과를 맞이했을지 예측값을 보여준다.

주 선거인단 수 PVI[1] 2020년
결과 		2020년
차이[2] 		선거 안으로(Inside Elections)
2024년 5월 8일[3] 		더 쿡 리포터(The Cook Political Report)
2024년 8월 8일[4] 		C분석(CNalysis)
2024년 8월 5일[5] 		사바토의 크리스탈 공(Sabato's Crystal Ball)
2024년 8월 7일[6] 		리얼클리어폴리틱스(RealClearPolitics)
2024년 7월 27일[7] 		디시전 데스크 HQ(Decision Desk HQ)
2024년 7월 9일[8] 		파이브서티에잇(FiveThirtyEight)
2024년 7월 19일[9] 		이코노미스트(The Economist)
2024년 7월 19일[10]
알래스카주 3 공화당 +8 공화당 52.8% 10.06% "견고함" 공화당 "견고함" 공화당 "견고함" 공화당 "안전함" 공화당 "상당히 기울어짐" 공화당 "상당히 기울어짐" 공화당 "상당히 기울어짐" 공화당 "견고함" 공화당
Arizona 11 틀:Shading PVI 틀:Party shading/Democratic data-sort-value="-49.4" | 49.4% D 틀:Party shading/Democratic data-sort-value="-0.31" | 0.31% 틀:USRaceRating 틀:USRaceRating 틀:USRaceRating 틀:USRaceRating 틀:USRaceRating 틀:USRaceRating 틀:USRaceRating 틀:USRaceRating
Colorado 10 틀:Shading PVI 틀:Party shading/Democratic data-sort-value="-55.4" | 55.4% D 틀:Party shading/Democratic data-sort-value="-13.5" | 13.50% 틀:USRaceRating 틀:USRaceRating 틀:USRaceRating 틀:USRaceRating 틀:USRaceRating 틀:USRaceRating 틀:USRaceRating 틀:USRaceRating
Florida 30 틀:Shading PVI 틀:Party shading/Republican data-sort-value="51.2" | 51.2% R 틀:Party shading/Republican data-sort-value="3.36" | 3.36% 틀:USRaceRating 틀:USRaceRating 틀:USRaceRating 틀:USRaceRating 틀:USRaceRating 틀:USRaceRating 틀:USRaceRating 틀:USRaceRating
Georgia 16 틀:Shading PVI 틀:Party shading/Democratic data-sort-value="-49.5" | 49.5% D 틀:Party shading/Democratic data-sort-value="-0.24" | 0.24% 틀:USRaceRating 틀:USRaceRating 틀:USRaceRating 틀:USRaceRating 틀:USRaceRating 틀:USRaceRating 틀:USRaceRating 틀:USRaceRating
Illinois 20 틀:Shading PVI 틀:Party shading/Democratic data-sort-value="-57.5" | 57.5% D 틀:Party shading/Democratic data-sort-value="-16.99" | 16.99% 틀:USRaceRating 틀:USRaceRating 틀:USRaceRating 틀:USRaceRating 틀:USRaceRating 틀:USRaceRating 틀:USRaceRating 틀:USRaceRating
Iowa 6 틀:Shading PVI 틀:Party shading/Republican data-sort-value="53.1" | 53.1% R 틀:Party shading/Republican data-sort-value="8.20" | 8.20% 틀:USRaceRating 틀:USRaceRating 틀:USRaceRating 틀:USRaceRating 틀:USRaceRating 틀:USRaceRating 틀:USRaceRating 틀:USRaceRating
Kansas 6 틀:Shading PVI 틀:Party shading/Republican data-sort-value="56.4" | 56.4% R 틀:Party shading/Republican data-sort-value="14.63" | 14.63% 틀:USRaceRating 틀:USRaceRating 틀:USRaceRating 틀:USRaceRating 틀:USRaceRating 틀:USRaceRating 틀:USRaceRating 틀:USRaceRating
Maine[a] 2 틀:Shading PVI 틀:Party shading/Democratic data-sort-value="-53.1" | 53.1% D 틀:Party shading/Democratic data-sort-value="-9.07" | 9.07% 틀:USRaceRating 틀:USRaceRating 틀:USRaceRating 틀:USRaceRating 틀:USRaceRating 틀:USRaceRating 틀:USRaceRating 틀:USRaceRating
ME–01[a] 1 틀:Shading PVI 틀:Party shading/Democratic data-sort-value="-60.1" | 60.1% D 틀:Party shading/Democratic data-sort-value="-23.09" | 23.09% 틀:USRaceRating 틀:USRaceRating 틀:USRaceRating 틀:USRaceRating 틀:USRaceRating 틀:USRaceRating 틀:USRaceRating 틀:USRaceRating
ME–02[a] 1 틀:Shading PVI 틀:Party shading/Republican data-sort-value="52.3" | 52.3% R 틀:Party shading/Republican data-sort-value="7.44" | 7.44% 틀:USRaceRating 틀:USRaceRating 틀:USRaceRating 틀:USRaceRating 틀:USRaceRating 틀:USRaceRating 틀:USRaceRating 틀:USRaceRating
Michigan 15 틀:Shading PVI 틀:Party shading/Democratic data-sort-value="-50.6" | 50.6% D 틀:Party shading/Democratic data-sort-value="-2.78" | 2.78% 틀:USRaceRating 틀:USRaceRating 틀:USRaceRating 틀:USRaceRating 틀:USRaceRating 틀:USRaceRating 틀:USRaceRating 틀:USRaceRating
Minnesota 10 틀:Shading PVI 틀:Party shading/Democratic data-sort-value="-52.4" | 52.4% D 틀:Party shading/Democratic data-sort-value="-7.11" | 7.11% 틀:USRaceRating 틀:USRaceRating 틀:USRaceRating 틀:USRaceRating 틀:USRaceRating 틀:USRaceRating 틀:USRaceRating 틀:USRaceRating
Missouri 10 틀:Shading PVI 틀:Party shading/Republican data-sort-value="56.8" | 56.8% R 틀:Party shading/Republican data-sort-value="15.39" | 15.39% 틀:USRaceRating 틀:USRaceRating 틀:USRaceRating 틀:USRaceRating 틀:USRaceRating 틀:USRaceRating 틀:USRaceRating 틀:USRaceRating
Montana 4 틀:Shading PVI 틀:Party shading/Republican data-sort-value="56.9" | 56.9% R 틀:Party shading/Republican data-sort-value="16.37" | 16.37% 틀:USRaceRating 틀:USRaceRating 틀:USRaceRating 틀:USRaceRating 틀:USRaceRating 틀:USRaceRating 틀:USRaceRating 틀:USRaceRating
NE–02[a] 1 틀:Shading PVI 틀:Party shading/Democratic data-sort-value="-52.0" | 52.0% D[b] 틀:Party shading/Democratic data-sort-value="-6.50" | 6.50% 틀:USRaceRating 틀:USRaceRating 틀:USRaceRating 틀:USRaceRating 틀:USRaceRating 틀:USRaceRating 틀:USRaceRating 틀:USRaceRating
Nevada 6 틀:Shading PVI 틀:Party shading/Democratic data-sort-value="-50.1" | 50.1% D 틀:Party shading/Democratic data-sort-value="-2.39" | 2.39% 틀:USRaceRating 틀:USRaceRating 틀:USRaceRating 틀:USRaceRating 틀:USRaceRating 틀:USRaceRating 틀:USRaceRating 틀:USRaceRating
New Hampshire 4 틀:Shading PVI 틀:Party shading/Democratic data-sort-value="-52.7" | 52.7% D 틀:Party shading/Democratic data-sort-value="-7.35" | 7.35% 틀:USRaceRating 틀:USRaceRating 틀:USRaceRating 틀:USRaceRating 틀:USRaceRating 틀:USRaceRating 틀:USRaceRating 틀:USRaceRating
New Jersey 14 틀:Shading PVI 틀:Party shading/Democratic data-sort-value="-57.3" | 57.3% D 틀:Party shading/Democratic data-sort-value="-15.94" | 15.94% 틀:USRaceRating 틀:USRaceRating 틀:USRaceRating 틀:USRaceRating 틀:USRaceRating 틀:USRaceRating 틀:USRaceRating 틀:USRaceRating
New Mexico 5 틀:Shading PVI 틀:Party shading/Democratic data-sort-value="-54.3" | 54.3% D 틀:Party shading/Democratic data-sort-value="-10.79" | 10.79% 틀:USRaceRating 틀:USRaceRating 틀:USRaceRating 틀:USRaceRating 틀:USRaceRating 틀:USRaceRating 틀:USRaceRating 틀:USRaceRating
North Carolina 16 틀:Shading PVI 틀:Party shading/Republican data-sort-value="49.9" | 49.9% R 틀:Party shading/Republican data-sort-value="1.35%" | 1.35% 틀:USRaceRating 틀:USRaceRating 틀:USRaceRating 틀:USRaceRating 틀:USRaceRating 틀:USRaceRating 틀:USRaceRating 틀:USRaceRating
Ohio 17 틀:Shading PVI 틀:Party shading/Republican data-sort-value="53.3" | 53.3% R 틀:Party shading/Republican data-sort-value="8.03" | 8.03% 틀:USRaceRating 틀:USRaceRating 틀:USRaceRating 틀:USRaceRating 틀:USRaceRating 틀:USRaceRating 틀:USRaceRating 틀:USRaceRating
Oregon 8 틀:Shading PVI 틀:Party shading/Democratic data-sort-value="-56.4" | 56.4% D 틀:Party shading/Democratic data-sort-value="-16.08" | 16.08% 틀:USRaceRating 틀:USRaceRating 틀:USRaceRating 틀:USRaceRating 틀:USRaceRating 틀:USRaceRating 틀:USRaceRating 틀:USRaceRating
Pennsylvania 19 틀:Shading PVI 틀:Party shading/Democratic data-sort-value="-50.0" | 50.0% D 틀:Party shading/Democratic data-sort-value="-1.16" | 1.16% 틀:USRaceRating 틀:USRaceRating 틀:USRaceRating 틀:USRaceRating 틀:USRaceRating 틀:USRaceRating 틀:USRaceRating 틀:USRaceRating
South Carolina 9 틀:Shading PVI 틀:Party shading/Republican data-sort-value="55.1" | 55.1% R 틀:Party shading/Republican data-sort-value="11.68" | 11.68% 틀:USRaceRating 틀:USRaceRating 틀:USRaceRating 틀:USRaceRating 틀:USRaceRating 틀:USRaceRating 틀:USRaceRating 틀:USRaceRating
Texas 40 틀:Shading PVI 틀:Party shading/Republican data-sort-value="52.1" | 52.1% R 틀:Party shading/Republican data-sort-value="5.58" | 5.58% 틀:USRaceRating 틀:USRaceRating 틀:USRaceRating 틀:USRaceRating 틀:USRaceRating 틀:USRaceRating 틀:USRaceRating 틀:USRaceRating
Virginia 13 틀:Shading PVI 틀:Party shading/Democratic data-sort-value="-54.1" | 54.1% D 틀:Party shading/Democratic data-sort-value="-10.11" | 10.11% 틀:USRaceRating 틀:USRaceRating 틀:USRaceRating 틀:USRaceRating 틀:USRaceRating 틀:USRaceRating 틀:USRaceRating 틀:USRaceRating
Wisconsin 10 틀:Shading PVI 틀:Party shading/Democratic data-sort-value="-49.5" | 49.5% D 틀:Party shading/Democratic data-sort-value="-0.63" | 0.63% 틀:USRaceRating 틀:USRaceRating 틀:USRaceRating 틀:USRaceRating 틀:USRaceRating 틀:USRaceRating 틀:USRaceRating 틀:USRaceRating
Overall 틀:Party shading/Vacant | D – 226
R – 235
77 tossups 		틀:Party shading/Vacant | D – 226
R – 235
77 tossups 		틀:Party shading/Vacant | D – 226
R – 235
77 tossups 		틀:Party shading/Vacant | D – 226
R – 235
77 tossups 		틀:Party shading/Vacant | D – 208
R – 219
111 tossups 		틀:Party shading/Vacant | D – 226
R – 235
77 tossups 		틀:Party shading/Vacant | D – 226
R – 246
66 tossups 		틀:Party shading/Republican | D – 196
R – 312
30 tossups
  1. ↑ “2022 Cook PVI: State Map and List”. 《Cook Political Report》. 2017년 12월 15일. 2022년 7월 13일에 원본 문서에서 보존된 문서. 2022년 7월 12일에 확인함. 
  2. ↑ “Federal Elections 2020” (PDF). Federal Election Commission. July 2023. 
  3. ↑ Gonzales, Nathan. “2024 Presidential Ratings (May 8, 2024)”. 《Inside Elections》. 2024년 5월 26일에 확인함. 
  4. ↑ “2024 CPR Electoral College Ratings”. Cook Political Report. 2024년 7월 9일. 2024년 7월 9일에 확인함. 
  5. ↑ “2024 CNalysis Pres. Forecast”. CNalysis. 2024년 8월 5일. 2023년 12월 25일에 원본 문서에서 보존된 문서. 2024년 8월 6일에 확인함. 
  6. ↑ Kondik, Kyle (2024년 8월 7일). “Electoral College Rating Changes”. Sabato's Crystal Ball. 2024년 8월 7일에 확인함. 
  7. ↑ “2024 RCP Electoral College Map | RealClearPolling”. 《www.realclearpolling.com》 (영어). 2024년 8월 11일에 확인함. 
  8. ↑ “2024 Presidential Forecast”. 《Decision Desk HQ/The Hill》. 2024년 7월 9일에 확인함. 
  9. ↑ 인용 오류: <ref> 태그가 잘못되었습니다; fivethirtyeight라는 이름을 가진 주석에 텍스트가 없습니다
  10. ↑ “Trump v Biden: The Economist's presidential election prediction model”. 《The Economist》. 2024년 7월 19일에 확인함. 


인용 오류: "lower-alpha"이라는 이름을 가진 그룹에 대한 <ref> 태그가 존재하지만, 이에 대응하는 <references group="lower-alpha" /> 태그가 없습니다

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