2024 Conservative Party leadership election
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The 2024 Conservative Party leadership election was announced on 5 July 2024 when then-Prime Minister Rishi Sunak declared his intention to resign as Conservative Party leader following the party's historic defeat at the 2024 general election. The leadership race commenced on 24 July and is expected to last for over three months, with Rishi Sunak's successor being confirmed in a final party membership vote on 2 November. Sunak is expected to remain as acting leader at least until his successor is appointed.
Six candidates are standing for the leadership: Kemi Badenoch, James Cleverly, Robert Jenrick, Priti Patel, Mel Stride and Tom Tugendhat. They will be eliminated in a series of votes, until two remain to stand in November.
Background
[edit]July 2022 leadership election and Liz Truss's short premiership
[edit]On 7 July 2022, Boris Johnson resigned as Conservative leader and Prime Minister after dozens of ministers resigned from his government following a slew of scandals and controversies, including Partygate, that marred the final few months of his premiership, culminating in the Chris Pincher scandal.[1] A leadership election was triggered to replace him, in which Rishi Sunak and Liz Truss were the final two candidates to be put forward to party members after a series of MPs' ballots. Truss won the contest, beating Sunak in the members' vote 57% to 43%.[2] She assumed leadership of the party on 5 September 2022, and became Prime Minister the following day.[3]
Truss' premiership would turn out to be the shortest of any Prime Minister in history, lasting just 49 days. Truss' tenure oversaw the death and state funeral of Queen Elizabeth II, which caused government business to be suspended during the 10-day national mourning period from 8–19 September. On 23 September 2022, in response to the cost-of-living crisis, Truss' Chancellor Kwasi Kwarteng announced a now-infamous 'mini-budget', which introduced large-scale tax cuts and borrowing. It caused the value of pound sterling to crash, sliding to an all-time low against the US dollar. The mini-budget was widely criticised and its policies were gradually reversed over the following three weeks. The Conservatives' opinion poll ratings also began to fall sharply in the weeks following the announcement, dipping to around 20% as they trailed Labour by over 30% in some polls.
Truss dismissed Kwarteng without explanation on 14 October 2022 and replaced him with Jeremy Hunt. By 17 October, pressure was beginning to mount on Truss' premiership and five Conservative MPs were calling for her resignation. On 19 October, Home Secretary Suella Braverman resigned after admitting to having used her personal email address to send a Cabinet document and her resignation letter was highly critical of Truss' government. Later that evening, a parliamentary vote on a debate to ban fracking — which was opposed by the government — descended into chaos over confusion whether it was being treated as a confidence vote in the government, compounded by speculation that the chief whip and deputy chief whip had resigned, and by allegations, later refuted, that some Conservative MPs had been manhandled in the division lobby. On 20 October, the following day, Truss announced she would resign as Prime Minister and Conservative leader shortly, triggering a second leadership election to find her replacement.[4]
October 2022 leadership election & Rishi Sunak's premiership
[edit]The timetable for the October 2022 leadership election was much shorter than the July one. An expedited process was set out; candidates were required to obtain 100 nominations from fellow Conservative MPs before 2 pm on 24 October, and an MPs' ballot followed by a online members' ballot was to be held shortly thereafter if more than one candidate received more than 100 nominations. Only two candidates announced their intention to stand: Sunak and Penny Mordaunt. There was intensive speculation that Johnson would initiate a bid for a return to the top post; at one point he was expected to stand and even received 62 nominations from MPs, but he subsequently declined to enter the race.
As only Sunak met the required threshold among MPs, receiving 197 nominations to Mordaunt's 27, Mordaunt withdrew from the leadership race two minutes before nominations closed and Sunak was left the only candidate remaining, enabling him to win the contest and become Conservative leader without an MPs' ballot or members' vote. Sunak became Prime Minister the next day, on 25 October.[5][6]
In his first speech as Prime Minister, Sunak said that Truss "was not wrong" to want to improve growth and that he "admired her restlessness to create change", but admitted that "some mistakes were made", and that he was elected prime minister in part to fix them. He promised to "place economic stability and confidence at the heart of this government's agenda". In an almost immediate reversal of Truss' policy, Sunak reinstated the ban on fracking on 26 October 2022 as outlined in the 2019 Conservative manifesto.
Sunak was faced with the task of rebuilding the Conservatives' reputation which had been significantly damaged by the controversies and scandals of the previous year and the Truss ministry. While their poll ratings recovered slightly over the following months, it still wasn't enough to bring them back to pre-Truss levels. Sunak contested his first local elections as leader on 4 May 2023, where the Conservatives suffered heavy losses. Two months later, on 20 July 2023, they lost two seats in by-elections; one to Labour and one to the Liberal Democrats. Their fortunes remained unchanged throughout policy changes of the following year, such as the shelving of the HS2 northern phase in October. The Conservatives lost two further seats in by-elections on 15 February 2024.[7][8]
In March 2024, there were suggestions that Sunak could face a leadership challenge before the upcoming general election — which was expected within the calendar year — if the Conservatives perform poorly at the local elections on 2 May.[9][10][11] Sunak however said he would resist a challenge, even if that ends up being the case.[12][13] As predicted, 2 May saw grim showing for the Conservatives, who suffered their worst local election results since 1996. Additionally, they lost another seat to Labour in the Blackpool South by-election, and narrowly lost the West Midlands mayoral election in a knife-edge vote. Sunak's premiership was described as more stable than that of his two predecessors, while still not being able to represent a turnaround for the Conservatives.[14]
2024 general election
[edit]On 22 May 2024, in a surprise announcement, Sunak called a general election for 4 July. Expectation had been that he would hold out until the autumn to do so, and he had the opportunity to wait until January 2025 under electoral law, though Sunak previously stated the election would be held in 2024.[15][16]
The Conservatives entered the campaign still trailing Labour by 20 points on average in the polls, knowing they needed to achieve an extraordinary comeback to avoid a heavy defeat. Rishi Sunak released the Conservatives' manifesto "Clear Plan. Bold Action. Secure Future." on 11 June 2024; key policies included stabilising the economy, implementing the Rwanda immigration plan, further strengthening the state pension and reintroducing national service.[citation needed]
D-Day controversy
[edit]On 6 June 2024, the 80th anniversary of D-Day, Sunak was heavily criticised for leaving commemoration events early to do an interview with ITV,[17][18][19] including by veterans.[20][21] Sunak apologised three times over the following week.[22]
Betting scandal
[edit]On 12 June 2024, it was reported that Conservative candidate and Parliamentary Private Secretary to the Prime Minister, Craig Williams had placed a £100 bet on the date of the election being in July, three days before the date was announced. The bet was referred to the Gambling Commission to determine whether Williams had placed the bet based on confidential information, which could constitute a criminal offence.[23] Williams apologised for the bet, but neither he nor Sunak would answer whether he had inside information.[24][25]
On 19 June, a police protection officer assigned to Sunak was arrested for betting on the election date.[26][27][28] On the same day, it was also announced that Laura Saunders, the Conservative candidate for Bristol North West, was being investigated for betting on the election date. Her husband, Tony Lee, is also being investigated by the Gambling Commission and took a leave of absence from his role as the party's director of campaigning on 19 June.[29][30][31]
Over the following two weeks, it was reported that dozens of further Conservative Party-linked officials were being investigated by the Gambling Commission,[32] including Conservative Party's chief data officer, Nick Mason;[33] The Times reported that the investigation was being widened to 100s of suspicious bets.[34] On 25 June, both Craig Williams and Laura Saunders had their support for their candidacies withdrawn by the Conservative Party.[citation needed]
Defeat and resignation
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Labour won the general election in a landslide, ending 14 years of Conservative government. Sunak conceded the election at 4:40 am on 5 July. The Conservatives experienced the largest defeat in its history, being reduced to 121 seats on a vote share of 23.7 per cent. It lost 244 seats, including those of twelve Cabinet ministers and that of former prime minister Truss.[35] It also lost all its seats in Wales.[36]
Subsequently, Sunak said in his final speech as Prime Minister that he would resign as leader of the party, but not immediately, staying on as leader as preparations are made to elect his successor.[37]
Campaign
[edit]Suella Braverman
[edit]In early July, shortly after the general election, reports suggested that Danny Kruger and John Hayes, prominent MPs on the right of the party, were going to support the prospective leadership candidate Robert Jenrick. This was seen as an early setback for Suella Braverman, since both Kruger and Hayes previously campaigned for her bid to succeed Boris Johnson in July 2022.[38][39][40] The i reported that following Braverman's controversial speeches regarding the pride flag, multiple Conservative MPs believed she had lost her support among her colleagues and could defect to Reform UK.[41] Sources in both parties suggested Braverman was expected to defect, potentially following the Conservative leadership election if she doesn't win.[42] Braverman did not stand, but claimed she could have surpassed the ten MP threshold to do so.[43]
Official campaign period
[edit]James Cleverly, Tom Tugendhat, Robert Jenrick, Mel Stride, Priti Patel and Kemi Badenoch were the confirmed candidates at the deadline of nominations on 29 July.[44] Tugendhat and Cleverly are pitching themselves as more moderate, centre-ground candidates, while Badenoch, Jenrick and Patel are competing for the vote of the party's right-wing, and Stride is seen as being between the two groupings.[44][45]
Bob Blackman, 1922 committee chair, announced that he would give out formal warnings, or "yellow cards", if they briefed against their rivals.[46]
Schedule
[edit]The elected chair of the 1922 committee, Bob Blackman, suggested prior to the election that the party must take its time in choosing a leader.[47] Following the election, he said that he expected Sunak would not be the leader by the Conservative Party Conference, which is being held at the end of September.[48]
The 1922 committee met to decide the schedule of the election on the 22 July. The leadership race is expected to last for a little over three months with Sunak's successor being confirmed on 2 November. The timetable of key dates is in the table below. Conservative Party Conference will act as a 'beauty parade' for the remaining candidates.[49][50]
Timetable
[edit]| Date | Event |
|---|---|
| 24–29 July | Nomination period; potential candidates needed to gather the support of ten fellow Conservative MPs to qualify for the first MPs' ballot.[51] |
| 4–11 September | Conservative MPs will vote in a series of ballots to narrow the field down to four candidates.[50] |
| 29 September – 2 October |
The Conservative Party Conference will take place, where all four remaining leadership hopefuls will give keynote speeches.[50] |
| 2–10 October | Conservative MPs will vote in two more ballots, where the four candidates will be whittled down to two finalists.[50] |
| 10–31 October | The final two candidates will go head-to-head in an online ballot of all Tory party members.[50] |
| 2 November | The result of the election will be announced.[50] |
Candidates
[edit]In June 2024, during the campaign for the 2024 general election, The Guardian reported that leadership hopefuls were already lobbying for support from MP candidates for a potential upcoming leadership election, which was seen as likely given that opinion polls showed the Conservatives on course for a heavy defeat.[52] The Times also reported that both Penny Mordaunt and Kemi Badenoch registered website domains for a leadership campaign.[53] As Mordaunt lost her seat in the general election, her prospective campaign never came to fruition; the Conservative Party constitution states that the leader of the party must be a Member of Parliament.[54]
Announced
[edit]The following have announced their leadership campaigns.
Explored
[edit]The following Conservative Party politicians explored a run but ultimately declined to stand:
- Victoria Atkins, Shadow Health Secretary (2024–present), Health Secretary (2023–2024), MP for Louth and Horncastle (2015–present)[61][62]
- Suella Braverman, Home Secretary (2022, 2022–2023), Attorney General (2020–2022), MP for Fareham and Waterlooville (2024–present); Fareham (2015–2024)[63]
- Kevin Hollinrake, Shadow Business Secretary (2024–present), MP for Thirsk and Malton (2015–present)[64]
Potential candidates prior to the election
[edit]The following figures lost their seats in the 2024 general election and are ineligible, but were discussed as potential candidates prior to results.
- Steve Baker, Minister of State for Northern Ireland (2022–2024), MP for Wycombe (2010–2024)[65]
- Lucy Frazer, Culture Secretary (2023–2024), MP for South East Cambridgeshire (2015–2024)[66]
- Penny Mordaunt, Lord President of the Council and Leader of the House of Commons (2022–2024), MP for Portsmouth North (2010–2024)[53]
- Grant Shapps, Defence Secretary (2023–2024), MP for Welwyn Hatfield (2005–2024)[67]
Declined
[edit]The following were suggested by commentators as potential candidates for the leadership but declined to stand:
- Claire Coutinho, Shadow Energy Secretary (2024–present), Energy Secretary (2023–2024), MP for East Surrey (2019–present)[68]
- Jeremy Hunt, Shadow Chancellor of the Exchequer (2024–present), Chancellor of the Exchequer (2022–2024), Foreign Secretary (2018–2019), MP for Godalming and Ash (2024–present, formerly South West Surrey, 2005–2024)[69]
- Laura Trott, Shadow Chief Secretary to the Treasury (2024–present), Chief Secretary to the Treasury (2023–2024), MP for Sevenoaks (2019–present)[70][68]
Endorsements
[edit]Opinion polling
[edit]Conservative party members
[edit]- Multi-candidate polling
| Dates conducted |
Pollster | Client | Sample size |
Kemi Badenoch |
Jeremy Hunt |
Suella Braverman |
Tom Tugendhat | Robert Jenrick | James Cleverly | Priti Patel | Victoria Atkins | Esther McVey | Others | Don't know |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 10–11 July 2024 | Conservative Home[a] | N/A | 995 | 26% | – | 10% | 13% | 13% | 9% | 3% | 2% | 1% | 7% | 16% |
| July 2024 | YouGov[b] | QMUL and Sussex University | 725 | 31% | 12% | 16% | 15% | 7% | 10% | 6% | 2% | – | – | – |
- Head-to-head
| Dates conducted |
Pollster | Client | Sample size |
Kemi Badenoch |
Suella Braverman |
Tom Tugendhat | Robert Jenrick | Priti Patel | James Cleverly | Don't know | Wouldn't vote |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 23–30 June | JL Partners | GB News | 502 | 31% | 35% | — | — | — | — | 14% | 20% |
| 30% | — | 30% | — | — | — | 20% | 20% | ||||
| 34% | — | — | 24% | — | — | 20% | 22% | ||||
| — | 37% | 31% | — | — | — | 15% | 17% | ||||
| — | 39% | — | — | — | 34% | 12% | 15% | ||||
| — | — | 31% | 25% | — | — | 25% | 19% | ||||
| — | — | — | 29% | 35% | — | 16% | 20% |
- Top candidates polling
| Dates conducted |
Pollster | Client | Sample size |
Kemi Badenoch |
Suella Braverman |
Tom Tugendhat | Robert Jenrick | Priti Patel | Don't know |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 23 July 2024 | Techne[c] | College Green Group | 1,002 | 52% | 45% | 52% | 55% | 47% | 30% |
- ^ The ConservativeHome Party Members' Survey is a self-selecting panel, not a demographically or geographically weighted poll. The panel is composed of over 3,300 members of the Conservative Party, who receive the survey by email.
- ^ 'Don't know' and 'None' removed
- ^ Party members were asked to rank the 5 candidates. These results show what percentage of Conservative members put the candidate in their top 4.
2019 Conservative voters
[edit]- Multi-candidate polling
| Dates conducted |
Pollster | Client | Sample size |
Penny Mordaunt |
Jeremy Hunt |
Suella Braverman |
Jacob Rees-Mogg |
Kemi Badenoch |
Grant Shapps |
Others | None | Don't know |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 13–20 June 2024 | Deltapoll | Helm Partners | 1,511 | 25% | 13% | 10% | 6% | 4% | 3% | — | 19% | 20% |
General public
[edit]- Multi-candidate polling
| Dates conducted |
Pollster | Client | Sample size |
Suella Braverman |
Tom Tugendhat |
Kemi Badenoch |
Priti Patel |
Robert Jenrick |
Don't know |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 21–25 June 2024 | JL Partners | GB News | 8,030 | 10% | 9% | 7% | 7% | 6% | 61% |
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