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Division of Blair

Blair
Australian House of Representatives Division
Map
Map
Interactive map of boundaries
Created1998
MPShayne Neumann
PartyAustralia Labor Party
NamesakeHarold Blair
Electors126,470 (2022)
Area6,472 km2 (2,498.9 sq mi)
DemographicProvincial

The Division of Blair is an Australian Electoral Division in Queensland.

Geography

Since 1984, federal electoral division boundaries in Australia have been determined at redistributions by a redistribution committee appointed by the Australian Electoral Commission. Redistributions occur for the boundaries of divisions in a particular state, and they occur every seven years, or sooner if a state's representation entitlement changes or when divisions of a state are malapportioned.[1]

History

The division was created in 1998 and is named after Harold Blair, an Aboriginal singer and civil rights campaigner. The Division is based on Ipswich, and extends from rural and exurban areas west of Brisbane to the Scenic Rim and Lockyer Valley regions.

The founder of One Nation, Pauline Hanson, contested Blair in 1998. Her previous seat, Oxley, had been essentially split in half in the redistribution ahead of the election. Oxley was reconfigured into an exclusively Brisbane-based seat that tilted strongly toward Labor, while most of the rural area near Ipswich shifted to Blair. Although it was a very safe Liberal seat on paper, it contained most of Hanson's base, so it was a natural choice for Hanson to attempt to transfer. The Liberals, Nationals and Labor preferenced each other ahead of Hanson, allowing Liberal challenger Cameron Thompson to win on the eighth count. Thompson overtook the Labor candidate on National preferences, then defeated Hanson on Labor preferences.

Thompson held the seat without serious difficulty in the next two elections, and it was widely considered as a safe Liberal seat. In the 2006 redistribution, the 2004 Liberal margin of 11.2% was almost halved to 5.7%. Conservative-leaning Esk, Nanango and Kingaroy were transferred to Maranoa, while Blair was pushed further into Ipswich and Boonah. Blair had been rated as having received more funding promises from the Howard government than any other electorate in the country.[2] The redistribution pushed Blair just outside the range of seats Labor needed to win government. In the 2007 election, Thompson was defeated by Labor challenger Shayne Neumann, with a 10.2 percent swing to Labor. Since then, the growth of Ipswich has allowed Neumann to consolidate his hold on the seat. For instance, in 2013, he actually picked up a small swing in his favour even as Labor lost government. In 2016, Neumann made Blair a safe Labor seat with 58.9 percent of the vote. However, in the following 2019 Federal Election, Neumann suffered one of the largest swings against a Labor member, with a primary vote of just 31.3%, cutting the two-party preferred vote to 51.2%, a massive and unexpected swing against him of 6.9% on a two-party preferred basis. This was in keeping with the heavy swing to the Liberal National Party (LNP) in Queensland in that election. In 2022 the seat swung back to Neumann somewhat, with 35% of the primary vote and 55.2% of the two-party preferred vote, with the 4.02% swing in his favour slightly higher than the national swing to Labor of 3.66%.

Members

Image Member Party Term Notes
  Cameron Thompson
(1960–)
Liberal 3 October 1998
24 November 2007
Lost seat
  Shayne Neumann
(1961–)
Labor 24 November 2007
present
Incumbent

Election results

2022 Australian federal election: Blair[3]
Party Candidate Votes % ±%
Labor Shayne Neumann 36,494 35.01 +3.75
Liberal National Sam Biggins 30,122 28.89 −0.14
Greens Danielle Mutton 13,113 12.58 +3.90
One Nation Liz Suduk 10,419 9.99 −6.81
United Australia Quinton Cunningham 6,353 6.09 +2.69
Liberal Democrats Michelle Jaques 3,080 2.95 +2.95
Animal Justice Angela Lowery 2,563 2.46 +2.46
Australian Values Maria Pitman 2,103 2.02 +2.02
Total formal votes 104,247 94.70 +2.19
Informal votes 5,832 5.30 −2.19
Turnout 110,079 87.11 −4.23
Two-party-preferred result
Labor Shayne Neumann 57,575 55.23 +4.02
Liberal National Sam Biggins 46,672 44.77 −4.02
Labor hold Swing +4.02
Graphs are unavailable due to technical issues. There is more info on Phabricator and on MediaWiki.org.
Primary vote results in Blair (Parties that did not get 5% of the vote are omitted)
  Labor
  Liberal National/Liberal
  National
  One Nation
  Greens
  Palmer United/United Australia Party
Graphs are unavailable due to technical issues. There is more info on Phabricator and on MediaWiki.org.
Two-candidate-preferred results in Blair

References

  1. ^ Muller, Damon (14 November 2017). "The process of federal redistributions: a quick guide". Parliament of Australia. Retrieved 19 April 2022.
  2. ^ "Australia Votes 2007 - Blair". Australian Broadcasting Corporation. 21 December 2007. Retrieved 31 March 2013.
  3. ^ Blair, QLD, 2022 Tally Room, Australian Electoral Commission.

27°06′54″S 152°27′43″E / 27.115°S 152.462°E / -27.115; 152.462

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Division of Blair
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