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2011 Asturian regional election

2011 Asturian regional election

← 2007 22 May 2011 2012 →

All 45 seats in the General Junta of the Principality of Asturias
23 seats needed for a majority
Opinion polls
Registered987,305 0.6%
Turnout609,072 (61.7%)
0.1 pp
  First party Second party
 
Leader Francisco Álvarez Cascos Javier Fernández
Party FAC PSOE
Leader since 18 January 2011 23 October 2010
Leader's seat Central Central
Last election Did not contest 21 seats, 42.0%
Seats won 16 15
Seat change 16 6
Popular vote 178,031 179,619
Percentage 29.7% 29.9%
Swing New party 12.1 pp

  Third party Fourth party
 
Leader Isabel Pérez-Espinosa Jesús Iglesias
Party PP IULV
Leader since 29 December 2010 2007
Leader's seat Central Central
Last election 20 seats, 41.5% 4 seats, 9.7%
Seats won 10 4
Seat change 10 0
Popular vote 119,767 61,703
Percentage 20.0% 10.3%
Swing 21.5 pp 0.6%

Constituency results map for the General Junta of the Principality of Asturias

President before election

Vicente Álvarez Areces
PSOE

Elected President

Francisco Álvarez Cascos
FAC

The 2011 Asturian regional election was held on Sunday, 22 May 2011, to elect the 8th General Junta of the Principality of Asturias. All 45 seats in the General Junta were up for election. The election was held simultaneously with regional elections in twelve other autonomous communities and local elections all throughout Spain.

Except for the 1995-1999 legislature, the Spanish Socialist Workers' Party (PSOE) had governed the autonomous community since the first election in 1983. However, in the 2011 election, the Asturias Forum (FAC), a split from the People's Party (PP), won the most seats despite PSOE obtaining more votes. The FAC was established on 19 January 2011 by Francisco Álvarez Cascos, former Deputy Prime Minister of Spain, after failing to be selected as PP's candidate. FAC gains came at the expense of the PP and the PSOE, but while PSOE's collapse had been predicted in early opinion polls, the PP had been widely expected to make strong gains before Cascos' split, instead scoring the worst result of its history. The Asturian Bloc (BA) had terminated its coalition with United Left (IU) and the Asturian Greens (LVA) in August 2010 and run separately, failing to win any seats. IU and the Greens maintained their coalition and retained their existing four seats.

Vicente Álvarez Areces, incumbent since 1999, did not seek re-election. As in Asturias it is not allowed for parties to vote against a proposed presidential candidate (instead being forced to either abstain or vote a candidate of their own), in July 2011, the PSOE and PP announced that they would abstain in the investiture voting of Álvarez Cascos, who thus became the new president at the head of a minority administration.[1]

The resulting government, however, was not able to gather legislative support to approve its 2012 regional budget, with both PP and PSOE blocking the vote, resulting in a fresh election being held in March 2012.

Overview

Electoral system

The General Junta of the Principality of Asturias was the devolved, unicameral legislature of the autonomous community of Asturias, having legislative power in regional matters as defined by the Spanish Constitution and the Asturian Statute of Autonomy, as well as the ability to vote confidence in or withdraw it from a regional president.[2]

Voting for the General Junta was on the basis of universal suffrage, which comprised all nationals over 18 years of age, registered in Asturias and in full enjoyment of their political rights. Amendments to the electoral law in 2011 required for Asturians abroad to apply for voting before being permitted to vote, a system known as "begged" or expat vote (Spanish: Voto rogado).[3] The 45 members of the General Junta of the Principality of Asturias were elected using the D'Hondt method and a closed list proportional representation, with an electoral threshold of three percent of valid votes—which included blank ballots—being applied in each constituency. Seats were allocated to constituencies, which were established by law as follows:

Each constituency was allocated an initial minimum of two seats, with the remaining 39 being distributed in proportion to their populations.[4]

The use of the D'Hondt method might result in a higher effective threshold, depending on the district magnitude.[5]

The electoral law allowed for parties and federations registered in the interior ministry, coalitions and groupings of electors to present lists of candidates. Parties and federations intending to form a coalition ahead of an election were required to inform the relevant Electoral Commission within ten days of the election call, whereas groupings of electors needed to secure the signature of at least one percent of the electorate in the constituencies for which they sought election, disallowing electors from signing for more than one list of candidates.[4][6]

Election date

The term of the General Junta of the Principality of Asturias expired four years after the date of its previous election. Elections to the General Junta were fixed for the fourth Sunday of May every four years. The previous election was held on 27 May 2007, setting the election date for the General Junta on Sunday, 22 May 2011.[2][4][6]

The president had the prerogative to dissolve the General Junta and call a snap election, provided that no motion of no confidence was in process, no nationwide election was due and some time requirements were met: namely, that dissolution did not occur either during the first legislative session or within the legislature's last year ahead of its scheduled expiry, nor before one year had elapsed since a previous dissolution under this procedure. In the event of an investiture process failing to elect a regional president within a two-month period from the first ballot, the General Junta was to be automatically dissolved and a fresh election called. Any snap election held as a result of these circumstances would not alter the period to the next ordinary election, with elected deputies merely serving out what remained of their four-year terms.[2]

Background

On 7 July 2010, the President of Asturias, Vicente Álvarez Areces, announced that he would not seek re-election.[7] Following the announcement, the General Secretary of the Asturian Socialist Federation (FSA), PSOE's regional branch, declared that he would seek the nomination to become the presidential candidate.[8] His candidacy, supported by the FSA Executive Committee, was ratified by the PSOE Federal Committee on 23 October 2010.[9]

United Left, coalition partner of the PSOE, decided that their regional General Coordinator, Jesús Sánchez Iglesias, would be its presidential candidate for a second consecutive time. His candidacy was supported by the IU Asturian Presidency in November 2010[10] and ratified by IU's political council in Asturias on 27 November 2010.[11]

The Asturian Bloc ended its coalition with United Left and the Greens in October 2010 and contested the election in a joint electoral list with the Asturian Nationalist Unity (UNA) under the label Bloc for Asturias-UNA: Commitment for Asturias. BA's sole sitting deputy, Rafael Palacios, was their presidential candidate.[12]

Oviedo city councillor Isabel Pérez-Espinosa was selected by the People's Party as its presidential candidate on 29 December 2010.[13] This led to a split within the Asturian PP as former Deputy Prime Minister Francisco Álvarez-Cascos had been seeking the nomination. He resigned from the PP and formed the Asturias Forum, running to the election on his own.[14]

Opinion polls

The table below lists voting intention estimates in reverse chronological order, showing the most recent first and using the dates when the survey fieldwork was done, as opposed to the date of publication. Where the fieldwork dates are unknown, the date of publication is given instead. The highest percentage figure in each polling survey is displayed with its background shaded in the leading party's colour. If a tie ensues, this is applied to the figures with the highest percentages. The "Lead" column on the right shows the percentage-point difference between the parties with the highest percentages in a poll. When available, seat projections determined by the polling organisations are displayed below (or in place of) the percentages in a smaller font; 23 seats were required for an absolute majority in the General Junta of the Principality of Asturias.

Results

Overall

Summary of the 22 May 2011 General Junta of the Principality of Asturias election results
Parties and alliances Popular vote Seats
Votes % ±pp Total +/−
Spanish Socialist Workers' Party (PSOE) 179,619 29.92 –12.12 15 –6
Forum of Citizens (FAC) 178,031 29.66 New 16 +16
People's Party (PP) 119,767 19.95 –21.55 10 –10
United Left of AsturiasThe Greens (IU–LV) 61,703 10.28 +0.59 4 ±0
Union, Progress and Democracy (UPyD) 14,640 2.44 New 0 ±0
Independents of Asturias (IDEAS) 6,380 1.06 New 0 ±0
Bloc for AsturiasAsturian Nationalist Unity: Commitment for Asturias (BA–UNA) 6,191 1.03 New 0 ±0
Left Front (FDLI) 4,598 0.77 New 0 ±0
The Greens–Green Group (LV–GV) 3,626 0.60 New 0 ±0
Asturian Renewal UnionAsturianist Party (URAS–PAS) 2,953 0.49 –1.73 0 ±0
Anti-Bullfighting Party Against Mistreatment of Animals (PACMA) 1,950 0.32 New 0 ±0
Communist Party of the Peoples of Spain (PCPE) 1,434 0.24 –0.09 0 ±0
Open Council (Conceyu Abiertu) 1,421 0.24 New 0 ±0
Constitutional and Democratic Party (PDyC) 1,034 0.17 New 0 ±0
National Democracy (DN) 711 0.12 –0.03 0 ±0
Liberal and Social Alternative (ALS) 334 0.06 New 0 ±0
National FrontRepublican Social Movement (FrN–MSR) 260 0.04 New 0 ±0
Communist Unification of Spain (UCE) 11 0.00 New 0 ±0
Blank ballots 15,611 2.60 +0.19
Total 600,274 45 ±0
Valid votes 600,274 98.56 –0.64
Invalid votes 8,798 1.44 +0.64
Votes cast / turnout 609,072 61.69 +0.10
Abstentions 378,233 38.31 –0.10
Registered voters 987,305
Sources[15][16][17][18]
Popular vote
PSOE
29.92%
FAC
29.66%
PP
19.95%
IULV
10.28%
UPyD
2.44%
IDEAS
1.06%
BAUNA
1.03%
Others
3.05%
Blank ballots
2.60%
Seats
FAC
35.56%
PSOE
33.33%
PP
22.22%
IULV
8.89%

Distribution by constituency

Constituency PSOE FAC PP IULV
% S % S % S % S
Central 28.4 11 30.1 12 19.1 7 11.2 4
Eastern 35.3 2 33.3 2 20.3 1 5.1
Western 36.6 2 24.6 2 25.1 2 7.8
Total 29.9 15 29.7 16 20.0 10 10.3 4
Sources[15][16][17][18]

Aftermath

Investiture
Ballot → 13 July 2011 15 July 2011
Required majority → 23 out of 45 Simple
16 / 45
☒N
16 / 45
checkY
Abstentions
29 / 45
29 / 45
Absentees
0 / 45
0 / 45
Sources[18][19]

References

Opinion poll sources
  1. ^ "Cascos supera al PP en Asturias (El Mundo)". Electómetro (in Spanish). 15 May 2011. Archived from the original on 18 May 2011. Retrieved 4 April 2015.
  2. ^ "Una encuesta de Asturbarómetro da la mayoría a Cascos". El Comercio (in Spanish). 13 May 2011.
  3. ^ "Una nueva encuesta de Asturbarómetro mantiene la mayoría de Foro Asturias". El Comercio (in Spanish). 14 May 2011.
  4. ^ "El PP doblega al PSOE a siete días de la cita electoral". La Razón (in Spanish). 15 May 2011. Archived from the original on 3 September 2011.((cite web)): CS1 maint: bot: original URL status unknown (link)
  5. ^ "Vuelco en Cantabria (La Razón)". Electómetro (in Spanish). 15 May 2011. Archived from the original on 19 May 2011. Retrieved 1 March 2021.
  6. ^ "El PSOE aventaja en dos puntos al PP, que si pactase con Foro tendría mayoría absoluta". La Nueva España (in Spanish). 15 May 2011.
  7. ^ "El PP sería el partido más votado en el ayuntamiento de Cáceres". Antena 3 (in Spanish). 5 May 2011.
  8. ^ "Encuesta de TNS para Antena 3 y Onda Cero. Elecciones 22M. Expectativas electorales en Asturias" (PDF). TNS Demoscopia (in Spanish). 5 May 2011. Archived from the original (PDF) on 8 September 2011.
  9. ^ "El PSOE es el partido más votado y Cascos deja al PP como tercera fuerza". La Voz de Asturias (in Spanish). 9 May 2011. Archived from the original on 11 May 2011. Retrieved 1 March 2021.
  10. ^ "El PSOE sería el más votado en Asturias (La Voz de Asturias)". Electómetro (in Spanish). 9 May 2011. Archived from the original on 13 May 2011.
  11. ^ "El PSOE se rinde al PP". La Razón (in Spanish). 25 April 2011. Archived from the original on 25 June 2011. Retrieved 1 March 2021.
  12. ^ "Según una encuesta de NC Report para La Razón, el PSOE sería la fuerza más votada en Asturias, pero un hipotético pacto entre el Foro de Asturias de Cascos y el PP, podría poner fin a 12 años de gobierno socialista". ForoCoches (in Spanish). 25 April 2011.
  13. ^ "Barómetro electoral autonómico" (PDF). Celeste-Tel (in Spanish). 9 May 2011.[permanent dead link]
  14. ^ "Preelectoral elecciones autonómicas, 2011. Principado de Asturias (Estudio nº 2873. Marzo-Abril 2011)" (PDF). CIS (in Spanish). 5 May 2011.
  15. ^ "El PSOE fija su objetivo: salvar los muebles". La Vanguardia (in Spanish). 6 May 2011.
  16. ^ "Cascos consolida su ventaja a un mes de las elecciones". El Comercio (in Spanish). 22 April 2011.
  17. ^ "Intención de voto en las Elecciones Autonómicas de Asturias, Mayo 2011". El Comercio (in Spanish). 22 April 2011.
  18. ^ "El partido de Cascos pierde fuerza (El Mundo)". Electómetro (in Spanish). 24 April 2011. Archived from the original on 29 April 2011.
  19. ^ "Cascos será la tercera fuerza en la región y decidirá el Gobierno". ABC (in Spanish). 8 May 2011.
  20. ^ "Empate técnico entre el PSOE y el PP en Asturias (Grupo Vocento)". Electómetro (in Spanish). 8 May 2011. Archived from the original on 3 September 2011.
  21. ^ "Intención de votu n´Asturies (Asturbarómetro)". Asturies Blogia (in Asturian). 25 April 2011.
  22. ^ "El PSOE sería el partido más votado, seguido del PP y del Foro Asturias de Cascos". COPE (in Spanish). 14 April 2011. Archived from the original on 8 March 2012.
  23. ^ "Encuesta COPE socio-electoral en el Principado de Asturias" (PDF). GAD (in Spanish). 12 April 2011. Archived from the original (PDF) on 28 April 2011. Retrieved 1 March 2021.
  24. ^ "Un partido liderado por Cascos ganaría las elecciones en Asturias". El Comercio (in Spanish). 23 January 2011.
  25. ^ "Encuesta Asturbarómetro. Asturias-Enero 2011". El Comercio (in Spanish). 23 January 2011.
  26. ^ "La mayoría absoluta del PP en Asturias en manos de Cascos (El Mundo)". Electómetro (in Spanish). 7 January 2011. Archived from the original on 15 January 2011.
  27. ^ "El PP conquista los grandes feudos de los socialistas". La Razón (in Spanish). 22 January 2011. Archived from the original on 5 March 2011.
  28. ^ "Asturbarómetro. Asturias. Elecciones autonómicas. Octubre 2010" (PDF). ADESA (in Spanish). 31 October 2010. Archived from the original (PDF) on 6 December 2010. Retrieved 1 March 2021.
  29. ^ "Intención de voto en las próximas elecciones autonómicas". El Comercio (in Spanish). 31 October 2010.
  30. ^ "Vuelco del mapa electoral autonómico (El Mundo)". Electómetro (in Spanish). 31 May 2010. Archived from the original on 2 June 2010.
  31. ^ "La izquierda mantiene el poder". Público (in Spanish). 21 March 2010. Archived from the original on 13 April 2015.
Other
  1. ^ Cuartas, Javier (2011-07-09). "Cascos will have to govern Asturias in minority". El País (in Spanish).
  2. ^ a b c "Ley Orgánica 7/1981, de 30 de diciembre, de Estatuto de Autonomía del Principado de Asturias". Organic Law No. 7 of 30 December 1981 (in Spanish). Retrieved 14 March 2017. ((cite book)): |work= ignored (help)
  3. ^ Reig Pellicer, Naiara (16 December 2015). "Spanish elections: Begging for the right to vote". cafebabel.co.uk. Retrieved 17 July 2017.
  4. ^ a b c "Ley 14/1986, de 26 de diciembre, sobre régimen de elecciones a la Junta General del Principado de Asturias". Law No. 14 of 26 December 1986 (in Spanish). Retrieved 14 March 2017. ((cite book)): |work= ignored (help)
  5. ^ Gallagher, Michael (30 July 2012). "Effective threshold in electoral systems". Trinity College, Dublin. Archived from the original on 30 July 2017. Retrieved 22 July 2017.
  6. ^ a b "Ley Orgánica 5/1985, de 19 de junio, del Régimen Electoral General". Organic Law No. 5 of 19 June 1985 (in Spanish). Retrieved 28 December 2016. ((cite book)): |work= ignored (help)
  7. ^ "Socialist Álvarez Areces renounces to stand for re-election to the Asturian Government after three terms". El País (in Spanish). 2010-07-08.
  8. ^ "Javier Fernández, the Socialist candidate" (in Spanish). El Comercio. 2010-07-20.
  9. ^ "Javier Fernández, ratified as PSOE candidate" (in Spanish). La Nueva España. 2010-07-20.
  10. ^ "IU proposes Jesús Iglesias to repeat as candidate" (in Spanish). La Nueva España. 2010-11-25.
  11. ^ "Iglesias: The budget guarantees social benefits" (in Spanish). La Nueva España. 2010-11-28.
  12. ^ "Rafael Palacios will head the joint list of Bloc for Asturias and UNA" (in Spanish). La Nueva España. 2011-02-02.
  13. ^ "The PP names Isabel Pérez-Espinosa candidate in Asturias and discards Álvarez Cascos" (in Spanish). RTVE. 2010-12-30.
  14. ^ "Álvarez-Cascos, proclaimed candidate to the Principality's Presidency" (in Spanish). La Nueva España. 2011-03-29.
  15. ^ a b "General Junta of the Principality of Asturias election results, 22 May 2011" (PDF). www.juntaelectoralcentral.es (in Spanish). Electoral Commission of Asturias. 7 July 2011. Retrieved 8 December 2019.
  16. ^ a b "Electoral Results. General Junta of the Principality of Asturias. 8th Legislature (2011–2012)". www.jgpa.es (in Spanish). General Junta of the Principality of Asturias. Retrieved 29 November 2019.
  17. ^ a b "Electoral Results. 2011". www.sadei.es (in Spanish). SADEI. Retrieved 27 September 2017.
  18. ^ a b c "Elecciones a la Junta General del Principado de Asturias (1983 - 2019)". Historia Electoral.com (in Spanish). Retrieved 27 September 2017.
  19. ^ "Álvarez-Cascos es elegido presidente de Asturias en minoría con el único apoyo de su partido" (in Spanish). RTVE. 15 July 2011. Retrieved 2 October 2018.
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2011 Asturian regional election
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